{"id":153,"date":"2015-05-22T19:41:31","date_gmt":"2015-05-22T19:41:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/new.brainpreservation.org\/?p=153"},"modified":"2015-08-29T05:19:37","modified_gmt":"2015-08-29T05:19:37","slug":"average-probability-of-cryonics-working-in-lesswrong-survey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brainpreservation.org\/zh\/average-probability-of-cryonics-working-in-lesswrong-survey\/","title":{"rendered":"Average Probability of Cryonics Working in LessWrong Survey"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Here at\u00a0the BPF we are interested in measuring the accuracy of a variety of possible techniques for brain preservation \u2014 including cryopreservation.<\/p>\n<p>The LessWrong forum has an annual survey, one of the questions of which is\u00a0the following:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>What is the probability that an average person cryonically frozen today will be successfully restored to life at some future time, conditional on no global catastrophe destroying civilization before then?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/lhg\/2014_survey_results\/\">2014 results<\/a> show that the most common\u00a0probability estimate for cryonics \u201cworking\u201d in this sense is 10%:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-48 size-large\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.brainpreservation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Screen-Shot-2015-05-22-at-9.22.58-AM-1024x748.png\" alt=\"PCryonics_Hist\" width=\"625\" height=\"457\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Perhaps interestingly, individuals above\u00a0the median age of 26 had a median probability estimate of 7% and a mean of 18%, while those below\u00a0the median age of 26 had a median probability estimate of 12% and a mean of 27%.<\/p>\n<p>In general, age and probability of cryonics \u201cworking\u201d estimates were inversely correlated with a Pearson correlation coefficient of -0.16:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-49 size-large\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.brainpreservation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Screen-Shot-2015-05-22-at-9.34.24-AM-1024x762.png\" alt=\"plot_age_prob\" width=\"625\" height=\"465\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Again, <a href=\"http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/lw\/lhg\/2014_survey_results\/\">here is a link\u00a0to the original source<\/a> with downloadable data. If you have an estimate, let us know in the comments. And more importantly and germane to the interests of the BPF, let us know <em>why<\/em> you think that.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here at\u00a0the BPF we are interested in measuring the accuracy of a variety of possible techniques for brain preservation \u2014 including cryopreservation. The LessWrong forum has an annual survey, one of the questions of which is\u00a0the following: What is the probability that an average person cryonically frozen today will be successfully restored to life at [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":159,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"coauthors":[24],"class_list":["post-153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryopreservation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brainpreservation.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/153","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brainpreservation.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brainpreservation.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brainpreservation.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brainpreservation.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=153"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.brainpreservation.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/153\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":174,"href":"https:\/\/www.brainpreservation.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/153\/revisions\/174"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brainpreservation.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/159"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brainpreservation.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brainpreservation.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brainpreservation.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=153"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brainpreservation.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}